Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to witness a significant increase in the number of paying SVOD subscriptions, reaching 16 million by 2029 from the current 7 million, as reported by Digital TV Research.
South Africa and Nigeria are predicted to contribute around 59% (9.4 million) of the total subscriptions in the region.
Despite this growth, the penetration of SVOD is anticipated to remain relatively low, with only 7.1% of TV households expected to subscribe to at least one service by 2029, up from 4.7% in 2023.
Digital TV Research predicts that Netflix will continue to dominate the SVOD market in the region, with an estimated 6.9 million subscribers by 2029. Showmax is expected to become the second-largest platform with 3.7 million paying subscribers, followed by Disney Plus, with its primary focus on South Africa, projected to have 905,000 subscriptions by 2029.
Digital TV Research’s Simon Murray, Principal Analyst, commented on the market dynamics, stating that the SVOD market is a battle between Netflix and regional player Showmax, which is rich in local content and sports rights. Showmax now has access to NBCUniversal, Sony Pictures, and HBO content. MultiChoice, Showmax’s parent company, recently rejected a takeover bid from Canal Plus.